For us weather fans, June’s approach is the time to start thinking about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are forecasting a probability of 11% for an average season (11 named storms and six hurricanes. The outlook includes the possibility of a greater or lesser number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
The UK Met Office also offers an outlook based on the Atlantic’s Atlantic Coordinated Model and results show that the expected probability of an average season for this Atlantic basin is 10%.
The uncertainty comes from our understanding of what influences are being stored in the current cold water in the North Atlantic (compared to the warm water that fuels hurricane activity in the south).
Latest information that has come to light is that sea surface temperatures off the east coast of Africa and the east coast of the US have been rising slightly for several months. If this continues this trend will influence rainfall patterns over the North Atlantic for the next few years, causing high relative wind speeds for developing storms.
The results from the future with the warmer South Atlantic water and the warmer current surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic indicates that a higher frequency of storms is likely, closer to the long-term average.
All the above are subject to major volatility and we cannot make this advice with certainty, this advice is based on current conditions and forecasts. Please refer to all of the details provided in the outlooks for the balance of the Atlantic basin regions with the UK and US. Please also take into account the forecast of the short-term sea surface temperatures around the East of Africa.